Conspiracy Analyst | U.S. Disintegration

I think Professor Igor Panarin is having one of those "15-minutes-of-" moments.

Over the last little while, the Soviet-era-KGB-Analyst-cum-Professor has been interviewed by the media as much as twice a day. (To put this in perspective, at the time of this writing, Google News shows a total of 179 stories about Professor Panarin. There are 15,650 about Britney Spears. Suppression? You be the judge...)

The real fuss began when the Wall Street Journal published a story about Mr. Panarin. (WSJ)

But enough hedging: At a conference in 1998, Mr. Panarin gave a presentation on his theory that the United States would disintegrate in 2010. His forecast was based on classified information provided by FAPSI, which at the time was the Russian version of the National Security Agency (US NSA).

The theory is basically this: Economic, financial and demographic trends provoke a political and social crisis. Then wealthier states withhold funds from the federal government, triggering social unrest and civil war. Finally the U.S. splits along ethnic lines, which is the cue for foreign powers to move in.

Panarin says right now there is a 45-55% chance this disintegration will occur, in either June or July of 2010.



The current fuss started Mon Nov 24, 2008 when Professor Panarin was interviewed by the Russian newspaper Izvestia. After that the story appeared in the Drudge Report on Tue Nov 25, 2008. (drudge) Then the bloggers started feeding. (freedomfighter) (curmudgeon) Eventually a big name media outlet caught on, and the Wall Street Journal published their story on December 29, 2008. (WSJ) After that it hit the wire... or the fan. Take your pick.

So: Professor Igor Panarin.



His entry in Wikipedia.
His entry in RussiaHouse.
One of his affiliations is the Diplomatic Academy.

As one might imagine, there are opponents to Panarin's predictions. Here's a good article (Time), pointing us toward Joel Garreau, who wrote the book Nine Nations of North America. Mr. Garreau also responded to Mr. Panarin's theory, which is nicely summed up here.

And Future Atlas puts the chances of an American Disintegration on the low side. (future.atlas)

The abomb&thecorpse Analysis: Professor Panarin is an expert in Information Warfare. The initial interview occurred in a tightly-regulated media environment. This sounds like a distraction campaign. But for what? Generated by the Americans... for keeping minds off the Israeli-Gaza conflict, perhaps to give Israel time, slowing public popular opposition? Generated by the Russians... for keeping the Americans occupied during the Gas-less Ukraine manouver?